Buyers & Sellers are Making Concessions to Close Deals; Expect Activity to Rise in 2H 2025
CRE activity has increased as buyers and sellers have moved closer together on transactions than at any point in the past 18 months. While challenges such as high interest rates, tariff uncertainty, construction costs, and labor issues still persist, many sellers who were waiting for conditions to improve have adjusted their expectations – and pricing – while buyers have found creative ways to close deals. People are tired of waiting it out, especially at a time when market volatility is high due to economic and political uncertainty. While the expectation last year was ‘survive until ’25’, our Coldwell Banker Commercial® brokerage professionals are seeing buyers, sellers, tenants and landlords increasingly willing to do deals and expect transaction volume could accelerate during the latter half of the year.
Total U.S. commercial real estate volume was $100.6 billion in 1Q25, up 14% year-over-year and individual asset sales were up 24% year-over-year, although both figures are below pre-pandemic levels. Retail assets performed the best, followed by industrial, multifamily and suburban offices while CBD office properties lagged behind, according to MSCI Real Assets.
Activity continues to be concentrated in secondary markets, like Phoenix, Seattle, Chicago, the Carolinas and many suburbs, while traditional gateway markets like NYC, Boston, San Francisco and Los Angeles are still seeing volume declines. Unemployment has held steady within a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024 and wages grew more than expected with average hourly earnings up 3.9% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nearly half the job growth came from healthcare, followed by leisure and hospitality.
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